Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 15 Mar 2016 06:00 to Wed 16 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Mar 2016 19:13
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for W Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A strong high pressure system in located over the North Sea and low geopotentials are placed over the eastern parts of Europe and NW Mediterranean basin. A shortwave trough will cross the Central Europe during this outlook and a low pressure system on the surface is forecast to form in the gulf of Genoa tomorrow night. An upper air cold pool is found over the borders of Spain and France where some instability is forecast. Low topped thunderstorms will be also found in other parts of Mediterranean, not supported by large scale lift or overlapped with DLS, so no threats have been issued for them.

DISCUSSION

.... West Spain ....

This cold pool over the area produces rather steep mid level lapse rates and even though BL has mixing ratios of about 7 to 8 g/kg, GFS forecast CAPE up to 300 J/kg during the evening hours. Latest WV satellite imagery shows a mid level dry intrusion, with high PV advection, so severe wind gusts are forecast within the most organised cells. DLS is at the range of 25 to 30 m/s and 0-3km shear up to 15 m/s and this is why large hail is also expected. Thunderstorm activity near the coast and Balearic isles will fade after 18z.