Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 08 Mar 2016 06:00 to Wed 09 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Mar 2016 21:39
Forecaster: DAFIS

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A longwave trough extends from Scandinavia all the way south to N Africa coast, pushing cold and dry polar air masses in central Europe. Even though these cold masses will be also found over the Mediterranean Sea, quiet dry BL and rather weak lapse rates produce only marginal CAPE. Diurnal heating will assist some and scattered thunderstorms in Italy and N Africa in weakly sheared environments.

Better BL for thunderstorm development is found in E-SE Balkans, after the passage of a cold front. Rather cold mid-levels overalp with moist BL and latest model runs suggest the formation of about 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, DLS is weak but numerous low-troposheric convergence zones will assist CI and perhaps some waterspouts. According to the latest sounding profile over Athens, CIN is built by a low level inversion, so CI is questionable in the continental parts of Greece, at least before the maximum diurnal heating.