Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 07 Mar 2016 06:00 to Tue 08 Mar 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Mar 2016 01:01
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for Greece and Albania for slight chances of tornadoes, excessive convective precipitation, and large hail.
SYNOPSIS
A broad upper low spans the European mainland, with its cold center near Luxembourg. Shortwave troughs produce rising motion where they pass southwards over the Iberian Peninsula and slowly eastwards across the eastern half of the Balkan, where warm low level airmass is advected northward ahead of a cold front. CAPE is only slight over much of he map, and somewhat elevated to a few hundred J/kg over the Ionean Sea, advecting into Albania and Greece, which are situated under a jet stream, creating strong vertical wind shear.
DISCUSSION
...Greece and Albania...
Over 30 m/s deep layer shear, 200-300 mē/sē 0-3 km SREH and 10-15 m/s 0-1 km shear vector magnitude is forecast by GFS model over this region to go along with the CAPE. This environment allows (embedded) rotating updrafts with chances of tornadogenesis and marginally large hail. The other factor is local excessive convective precipitation caused by slow dragging of the cold front along coastal orography.
