Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 02 Feb 2016 06:00 to Wed 03 Feb 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 01 Feb 2016 20:36
Forecaster: DAFIS

No threats were issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Most of Europe is under high geopotentials, while a longwave trough over the most eastern parts of the continent is moving towards central Russia. According to NWP models, tonight a shortwave trough is forecast to form over the NE Atlantic ocean, associated with a deep cyclonic vortex on the surface. High upper and mid-level PV values are advected over N UK and Norway, where a vigorous wind field is about to affect these countries with non-convective gusts of more than 32 m/s, as a 850 hPa jet streak of about 40 m/s is expected during the first half of Tuesday. Convection will be marginal because of the rather dry BPL (mixing ratio 3 - 5 g/kg) and located near the coasts, after 1500 UTC with cloud tops below -20°C, enhanced by marginal convergence zones and large scale lift, with limited lightning activity over N UK, SW Norway and Denmark. Also, some marginal storms may appear in the early morning of Wednesday in N France and Benelux.