Valid: Fri 22 Jan 2016 06:00 to Sat 23 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 21 Jan 2016 17:09
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
An amplified trough over E-Europe supports ongoing advection of dry/cold continental air far south. Only focus for isolated thunderstorm development will be far NW Europe. As cold mid-levels spread east, isolated thunderstorms are forecast with a few severe wind gusts possible in an already enhanced gradient flow regime. The main gust threat will be over Ireland and Scotland. Stronger forcing north of Ireland/Scotland could induce a line of more organized convection with severe/damaging wind gusts during the night, but this is out of our forecast area.
Isolated lightning activity is possible west of NW Spain as a warm front lifts north. Weak mid-level lapse rates keep this risk on the lower end side...hence no lightning area was added.
A few thunderstorms are also possible over the S-CNTRL Mediterranean, but diffuse foci (mainly on the mesoscale) keep confidence for lightning areas very low.