Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 18 Jan 2016 06:00 to Tue 19 Jan 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Jan 2016 05:04
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the southern Aegean Sea, the south coast of Turkey and Cyprus mainly for chances of tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Lows at the entrance of the English Channel and over the Black Sea/Turkey area (and later near Corsica) produce cold mid level air advection over warm sea water, developing deep convection. Several hundred J/kg MLCAPE roam the eastern Mediterranean Sea and Aegean Sea. A band with relatively weak winds, slow cell motion and high low-level vorticity is present between Greece and the south coast of Turkey, and convergence near the coastlines aids in initiating storms which can easily ingest ambient vorticity into their updrafts, spinning up one or more waterspouts in the highly unstable surface layer (20°/km from sea surface).