Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 26 Dec 2015 06:00 to Sun 27 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 25 Dec 2015 17:50
Forecaster: DAFIS

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A wide high pressure system is found over central and south Europe and zonal flow continues in northern parts but this pattern will be interpreted after Sunday. A longwave trough with an axis from Scandinavia towards Russia moves eastwards during the forecast, with low geopotential, lapse rates of more than 7K/km but very dry BL. NWP models predict some CAPE over NW Russia with a slight probability of thunderstorms as indicated on the map, but strong wind gusts are not completely ruled out as the 850 hPa winds exceed the 25 m/s. The low probability excludes a level 1. Some other areas with low CAPE formation have also chances to experience a few lightnings such as Norway's coasts and west from Portugal.