Valid: Fri 25 Dec 2015 06:00 to Sat 26 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Dec 2015 12:47
A level 1 was issued for the Skagerrak/Kattegat and SW Sweden for severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCSUSSION
Vigorous depressions affect NW/N Europe, but bad BL moisture/mid-level lapse rate overlap with low-end CAPE precludes widespread DMC probabilities.
The level 1 experiences an overlap of up to 400 J/kg SBCAPE with 25 m/s LL flow until noon. Severe wind gusts and sleet is forecast.
During the afternoon, the Baltic States could see a few stronger updrafts (a few even electrified) but weak LL forcing limits confidence in an organized line. Also diffluent LL wind field (ahead of next LL speed max) during time frame with best CAPE keeps confidence in severe wind gust on the lower end side. A lightning area was added, where forecast soundings show marginal chance for updraft penetration into graupel zone.