Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 21 Dec 2015 06:00 to Tue 22 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 Dec 2015 01:36
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

Level 1 issued for parts of Scotland, Denmark and southern Baltic Sea mainly for severe convective wind gusts.


A westerly mid level flow carries a trough from western to central Europe. The trough is associated with a mid level cold front moving from the Netherlands to the Baltic states. Behind it, a low associated with a fast shortwave trough moves over Scotland, Denmark and southern Baltic Sea. After its occluded front convection could appear, with ELs cold enough for thunderstorms, but CAPE is weak. This visits Scotland around 15Z, NW Denmark around 00Z and Baltic Sea after 03Z according to GFS. Wind gusts of 25-30 m/s are possible in these areas.

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