Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 11 Dec 2015 06:00 to Sat 12 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 10 Dec 2015 14:06
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Zonal flow pattern with embedded vorticity lobes affects most parts of N/CNTRL Europe. Somewhat stronger deep layer lift overspreads the S-North Sea during the afternoon/evening and N-Germany during the night. A cold front surges SE but remains anchored beneath or on the anticyclonic side of a strong mid/upper-level jet. A few shorter line segments could evolve along that front, but limited updraft strength should keep lightning activity on a very low-end side. 25 m/s winds at 850 hPa occur in an area with 400 J/kg SBCAPE especially during the night. Stronger cells may mix a few severe wind gusts down to the surface. Hence a level 1 was issued.

Active maritime convection occurs beneath large-scale upper trough with cold mid-levels over the North/Baltic Sea. No serious speed maximum at 850 hPa is forecast, hence no level 1 was added.

Further areas were highlighted with a low-end lightning area but nothing severe is forecast. Heavy rain could accompany convection over far S-Greece, but most models keep thunderstorms just offshore.