Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 01 Dec 2015 06:00 to Wed 02 Dec 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 30 Nov 2015 22:04
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough amplifies into easternmost Europe, while a long-wave ridge builds from Iberia towards the North Sea. This configuration temporarily forces the still strong mid-level flow to turn into a northwesterly direction over most of the continent.
At the surface, a deepening low moves eastward across the Ukraine and a mature storm cyclone is located near Iceland. They are connected by a long and well-established frontal boundary, which pushes southward as a cold front in the wake of the Ukrainian low while it reverses into a warm front across central Europe and the British Isles.

DISCUSSION

The cold front of the eastern low will be overspread by a strong vorticity maximum over the S Ukraine, Moldova and NE Romania in the 09 to 18 UTC time frame. Orographic channeling along the Carpathians will further accelerate the cold air towards the Black Sea. Under strong vertical wind shear (15-25 m/s in the lowest 3 kilometers), a narrow line of forced convection may form at the leading edge of the cold front, and isolated severe wind gusts are possible. However, very little to no CAPE is predicted, hence it is unlikely that this line will grow deep enough to produce thunder.

Otherwise, weakly electrified convection is possible in the stream of well-mixed polar air behind this cold front: in the first half of the forecast period over parts of the Norwegian and Baltic Sea (including downwind areas) and late at night over the Black Sea.