Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 23 Nov 2015 06:00 to Tue 24 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Nov 2015 01:23
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the western Balkan coast mainly for a tornado chance.
A level 1 was issued for the sea west of Corsica mainly for a tornado chance.
A level 1 was issued for the sea north of Algeria mainly for a tornado chance.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A northerly flow over the Atlantic and western Europe has deposited cold airmasses into the Mediterranean basin, resulting in slightly unstable conditions. The flow is broken up by a surface level ridge building from the Atlantic high to the Balkan. A Genoa low pressure area drifts west of Corsica later in the period. Other small low pressure cores are southwest of the Balearic Islands and over southern Italy. An upper level trough directs a southwesterly jet stream over Italy and the Balkan, creating over 20 m/s 0-6 km shear. 0-1 km shear is locally enhanced over 10 m/s near Italy and Balkan, which could result in an isolated tornado. The low west of Corsica harbours strong vorticity, slow storm motion and steep surface to low/mid level lapse rates which is favourable for waterspout type tornadoes. Similar conditions may occur near the Algeria coast.