Storm Forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Nov 2015 06:00 to Sun 15 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 13 Nov 2015 21:47
Forecaster: DAFIS

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Once more, high pressure conditions and unusually high temperatures prevail over the biggest part of the Europe, but on the contrary, the last few days northern parts experience bad weather conditions, like severe wind gusts and some downpours. During Saturday, an upper-level trough crosses a large part of the continent, with its axis and vorticity maxima placed over Germany in the early morning, found over the Ukraine around midnight according to latest model runs. Temperatures of about -35C at 500hPa and -3C at 850hPa over the Baltic Sea will result in steep lapse rates and some CAPE is forecast, especially in northern, off shore parts of Poland where high EL heights will assist the formation of short-lived storms and limited lightning activity. The large-scale lift ahead of the trough may also allow some CAPE to move further inland. Mid-level shear and DLS do not suggest any probability of severe phenomena as both parameters are forecast not to exceed the 10 m/s where CAPE is expected. Nevertheless, non-convective wind gusts may exceed the 25 - 30 m/s in the coasts of Denmark, Germany, Poland and the Baltic States.

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