Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 01 Nov 2015 06:00 to Mon 02 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 31 Oct 2015 15:12
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 2 was issued for SE Spain mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and tornadoes.

A level 2 was issued for S Italy mainly for the excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for S Italy mainly for the excessive precipitation and waterspouts.

A level 1 was issued for S Spain, Balearic Islands and parts of Africa mainly for the large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A large mid-level geopotential high dominates the weather pattern in the central European region where the polar marine and continental air masses occurs. Main polar jet stream extends from N Atlantic through Scandinavia up to northern Russia. Another jet streak extends from Azores to S Spain. Warm and unstable air masses conducive for producing thunderstorms are placed in the S Europe within cut-off over S Portugal and decaying trough over Sicily.

DISCUSSION

... SE Spain ...

The main thunderstorm threat in this region is expected in the late afternoon hours and nighttime and should continue on Monday. Mid-level cut-off is entering S Iberian Peninsula in the evening and rapidly builds up in the low-levels providing strong low and mid-level S flow (together with steepening laps rates) on its eastern side. Within these area a CAPE up to 2000 J/kg along the SE Spanish coast will be available. Since strong QG-lift is available and the models are consistent with CI a level 2 is issued. In the environment of DLS ~ 25 m/s, MLS ~ 15 m/s and LLS ~ 12 m/s, 0-1km SRH up to 150 m2/s2 and moist (mixing ratio: 11-12 g/kg) low-level E inflow each kind of severe weather phenomena associated with severe convection is possible. MCS is likely to form in the late evening hours and move northeastwardly in the form of the linearly organized convection with the main threat of severe wind gusts. Embedded and isolated supercells capable of producing large hail and excessive precipitation are also likely. Although nighttime convection limits the risk of the tornadoes - within favorable kinematic conditions these cannot be ruled out.

... S Italy ...

Persistent convection with almost stationary thunderstorms and heavy stratiform precipitation are forecast to occur within the trough over Sicily. Rather low CAPE overlaps with weakly sheared environment that limits the threat of the most kinds of severe weather phenomena associated with thunderstorms except waterspouts. However, low storm motion connected with PW exceeding 30mm and superimposing stratiform precipitation create risk for large amounts of precipitation and local flash flooding. The region with the highest threat was marked by the level 2.