Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 12 Oct 2015 06:00 to Tue 13 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 12 Oct 2015 04:49
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for the south coast of Turkey mainly for chances of large hail, excessive convective rain and severe convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for Spain mainly for chances of spout-type tornadoes, isolated large hail and isolated excesssive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Anticyclones over Ireland as well as southern Scandinavia-Baltic region send cool dry air westwards over central Europe. Low pressure systems are found over the western Iberian Peninsula to southern France, Hungary to Black Sea with associated cloudiness and slight instability. Most significant MLCAPE develops over the Iberian Peninsula (300-600 J/kg) and along the south coast of Turkey (2000 J/kg) in the GFS model.

DISCUSSION

...Iberian Peninsula...

As the center of the low moves over Portugal, spout-type tornadoes and isolated excessive rain can occur in the vortical, low-shear, slow moving humid environment. Towards central Spain, large hail becomes more possible as the jetstream creates a zone of 20 m/s 0-6 km shear over the CAPE and significant lift at the front side of the PV pool.

...Turkey...

A cold front and convergence zone slowly moves eastward along and perpendicularly oriented to the south coast where rich low-level moisture and high CAPE over the Mediterranean are just uncapped over the coastline. 15 m/s 0-6 km shear suffices for supercells with large hail. These storms may last long at any place and can also be producing severe downburst wind gusts as dry desert air at mid levels creates 20K delta theta-e. Waterspouts are also likely.