Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 19 Jul 2015 12:00 to Sun 19 Jul 2015 15:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 19 Jul 2015 12:14
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Aided by solar heating and slight cooling of the mid-troposphere air ahead of the trough, Storms are developing in an almost uncapped air-mass. in which MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is present.

Given that 20 m/s of deep-layer shear is in place, some of these storms may develop supercellular characteristics, i.e. rotating updrafts, and produce large hail and severe wind gusts.

Across the northern half of the MD area, LCL height is rather low, so that a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out there. A limiting factor is the lack of directional shear and SREH.