Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 23 Jun 2015 06:00 to Wed 24 Jun 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 23 Jun 2015 06:10
Forecaster: KAHRAMAN
A level 2 was issued for N Italy mainly for large hail and tornadoes
A level 1 was issued for Slovenia and surroundings mainly for excessive precipitation
A level 1 was issued for parts of E Spain mainly for large hail
A level 1 was issued for parts of NW Turkey mainly for large hail
A level 1 was issued for N Algeria and N Tunus mainly for large hail
SYNOPSIS
A major through and cold core low over C Europe favours isolated / scattered thunderstorms over a large region with polar air aloft and relatively modest moisture advection. Deep layer shear is stronger in S and E parts of the region. No level is issued for E parts due to weak overlap of latent instability and shear. However, a low pressure centre develops over N Italy during the day, where kinematics ensure storms to organize better.
A semi-persistent through over SE Europe suggest a second area of interest to the east.
DISCUSSION
... N Italy and Slovenia ...
A MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 20 m/s and more as well as strong forcing suggest supercells over the area. Around the Genoa bay and NW coasts, and also NE Italy, best coexistence of instability and shear (both DLS and LLS) occur. Large hail is the main threat here. Tornadoes are also possible around the area, with ~10 m/s 0-1 km shear and low LCLs. Around Slovenia, low level moisture advection and backbuilding risk suggest excessive precipitation from a possible MCS.
... E Spain ...
Thick CAPE, sufficcient shear and high LCLs favour large hail over parts of NE Spain and E coasts.
... NW Turkey ...
Marginal large hail is possible over parts of E and S Marmara Sea as well as Black Sea coasts. Southern parts are more capped, but isolated storms might produce large hail as well. However, no level is warranted there.
... N Africa ...
Strong deep layer shear and moderate CAPE values with high LCLs suggest large hail over the area. It is not clear if high CIN values will permit storm formation especially around the coast, but steep lapse rates exist over slightly south.
