Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 15 Apr 2015 06:00 to Thu 16 Apr 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 14 Apr 2015 20:32
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Morocco and S Iberia mainly for large hail and to the lesser degree for severe wind gusts and exessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A ridge is stretching over the Central Mediterranean with low geopotentials at its flanks. Cyclonic vortex centered over SW Iberia will be accompanied by scattered DMC over Morocco and S Iberia as a plume of steep lapse rates is advected N-ward. Towards the north, strong prevailing WNW-ly flow will cover much of N Europe and N half of central Europe. Low-topped DMC is forecast in the maritime arctic airmass especially behind the cold front that will cross S Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea towards SE . Low geopotentials and cold mid-levels will contribute to thunderstorms also over parts of the Aegean and Turkey.


DISCUSSION

... Morocco to S Iberia ...

Plume of steep lapse rates is advected from N Africa northwards towards Iberia, with 800 to 600 hPa lapse rates around 7 K/km. Mid to upper tropospheric low will slowly shift E-wards along with an ill-defined cold front initiating DMC. CAPE values on the order of several hundreds J/kg to around 1000 J/kg are possible in this setup. Moderate to strong DLS is simulated as well, with values between 15 and 25 m/s. Along the N African coastline, enhanced SRH is simulated. In such configuration, well organised multi and/or supercells are forecast with primary threats of large hail. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur as well, especially over Morocco where stronger low-level shear is simulated. Here, excessive precipitation may occur with multiple rounds of DMC simulated by models.