Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 13 Mar 2015 06:00 to Sat 14 Mar 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 12 Mar 2015 17:23
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for the E-CNTRL and the E Mediterranean mainly for a few large hail and an isolated tornado event. Excessive rain is possible.

SYNOPSIS

A blocked pattern continues. A broad cyclonic vortex is placed over SE Europe with strong ridging to its NW. An Atlantic trough tries to approach Europe but remains unsuccessful and evolves into a southbound moving cold-core low. This low affects the Bay of Biscay and W-France during the night.

DISCUSSION

... E-CNTRL and E Mediterranean ...

An upper trough pans east and affects the Ionian/Aegean Sea and areas to the south. With cold mid-levels atop warm SSTs, widespread 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. DLS is not really strong, but roughly 15 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear and aforementioned CAPE should be enough for a few better organized storms. A few large hail and strong wind gust events are well possible. In addition, a heavy rain risk exists. Its final magnitude depends on how healthy the low-tropospheric vortex will be. Latest data keeps QPF in a level 1.

A tornado risk exists over the offshore areas and along the coasts with decreasing background flow beneath the upper trough. Another focus for an isolated tornado event will be the SW coast of Turkey, where enhanced BL shear overlaps with moderate MLCAPE.

Thunderstorm activity will end from west to east during the day.

... W-France ...

A few non-severe thunderstorms are possible beneath the upper cold-core low. Graupel and gusty winds will be the main hazard. A few night-time storms are forecast over the extreme NW Mediterranean.