Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 01 Mar 2015 15:00 to Sun 01 Mar 2015 17:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 01 Mar 2015 15:01
Forecaster: TASZAREK

Organized line of storms that developed within the cold frontal zone is moving eastwardly. Current radar data indicate that the line extends from Cambrian Mountains through Cape Cornwall and locally reaches reflectivity over 40 dBz. Sounding from 1200 UTC performed in Camborne (WMO ID: 03808) in front of the approaching line indicate that given dew points around 5-7C (that are currently measured on some of the stations -Camborne, Cornwall Airport, 1300 UTC), instability in the layer from 300 to 3500 m AGL can reach locally 100-150 J/kg (SB CAPE parameter). Sounding indicate very strong mid-level airflow and significant wind shear values (0-6km - 59 m/s, 0-3km - 24 m/s, 0-1km - 11 m/s).

Overlap of such dynamic airflow with instability, and linearly organized convection create risk for the occurrence of severe weather phenomena of convective origin. Although free convective layer is shallow and lightning activity is currently marginal, it is expected that in the following 2 hours line can be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Tornado within this line is also not ruled out.

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