Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Feb 2015 06:00 to Tue 17 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Feb 2015 03:57
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Anticyclones are present over the Atlantic and over (north)eastern Europe where cold continental air resides. An occluded front stretches between Iberian Peninsula and the Norwegian Sea. An upper cold low moved into the western Mediterranean and causes a surface low pressure area to deepen near Sardinia. Steep lapse rates over the warm waters stimulate convective developments, with 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE predicted. There is strong shear present over the southern Mediterranean, but it mainly rounds the CAPE area. If storms form in the overlap region, which also has the best lift from DCVA, some low-topped supercells may form, but these may at best produce some marginally large hail as the low-level shear and humidity conditions are not so favorable for tornadoes.