Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Feb 2015 06:00 to Sun 15 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Feb 2015 00:12
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS

Blocking pattern continues over Europe. Cut-off lows over France and Turkey and a short-wave trough which crosses northern Scandinavia are opposed by high pressure over eastern and southeastern Europe and over southern Scandinavia.

DISCUSSION

... France into W Mediterranean ...

At the southwestern flank of the almost stationary cut-off low, several short-wave troughs provide lift and create marginal CAPE over France during daytime and over the western Mediterranean Sea especially overnight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible, mostly under weak vertical wind shear. Only in southwestern France they may tap into increasing 0-3 km shear (10-20 m/s) and storm-relative helicity (100-200 m^2/s^2) in closer vicinity to a northwesterly mid-level jet streak which spreads over the Iberian Peninsula. A few multicells may develop between 09 and 16 UTC. Small hail and an isolated tornado are not ruled out, but the lack of more robust CAPE keeps these risks too low for a level 1.
Coastal areas of northwestern Italy (Liguria and Tuscany) may see a little bit higher coverage of (embedded) thunderstorms. Isolated heavy rain is possible in case of backbuilding storms under onshore flow.

... S Turkey ...

Near the (more diffuse) second cut-off low, scattered and possibly thundery showers will go on in coastal areas. One or two waterspouts are possible, with higher chances to the east of our forecast domain.