Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 12 Feb 2015 06:00 to Fri 13 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 11 Feb 2015 22:00
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

The flow forms a weakening omega centred across Germany and Poland. The eastern trough will slowly move eastwards across Turkey. The western trough lifts into France ahead of a new Atlantic trough that moves into the western British Isles area late in the period. Weak mid-level flow is expected across central and southern Europe. At lower levels, weak moisture spreads into the east Mediterranean. Slightly better moisture around 6 g/kg is present across the western Mediterranean. This moisture can partly overlap with steepening lapse rates that form in the cold air mass over the warm sea surface as indicated by latest Murcia sounding. Current models also show some CAPE that evolves across the west Mediterranean in the afternoon and evening hours, and a few storms are not ruled out ahead of a cold front moving east from the Iberian Peninsula. Severe storms are not likely given the weak vertical wind shear.

Another area of possible thunderstorms is the Bay of Biscay, where severe storms are also not expected due to weak vertical wind shear. A few low-topped and mostly weak storms may also form in the cold air advection regime across the southern Aegean Sea, but the weak low-level moisture is a limiting factor.