Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 10 Feb 2015 06:00 to Wed 11 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Feb 2015 17:34
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 was issued for the S Aegean Sea for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Greek island of Crete for severe convective wind gusts and excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A pronounced anticyclone over western and central Europe and a deep trough filled with polar air over eastern Europe dominate the weather pattern. A strong frontal zone is deflected to the far north over the North Atlantic Ocean and Scandinavia, then it turns sharply south- and southwestward across the Ukraine and the Balkans into the eastern Mediterranean region.
This flow pattern creates mostly hostile conditions for deep convection.

DISCUSSION

... S Aegean Sea, Crete ...

A surface cyclone slowly leaves our forecast area from Crete towards southern Turkey. At its rear flank, strong northerly winds in excess of 20 m/s will evolve over the Aegean Sea. Especially in the second half of the forecast period, very cold air on top of the sea surface will create instability that may grow deep enough to produce thundery showers. The wind field will start to relax then, but the time window in which thunderstorms may contribute to wind gusts above 25 m/s seems long enough to issue a level 1.
In addition, high rainfall totals can be expected at the northern side of Crete (according to SKIRON, locally even >100 mm in 24 hours). Flash floods in coastal areas and thick snow accumulations in the backcountry may cause localized problems.

... N and central Norway ...

The frontal system of a strong Atlantic cyclone moves onshore. Widespread wind gusts between 25 and 35 m/s are likely anywhere to the north of Trondheim. The precipitation will turn increasingly convective in the wake of the cold front after 15 UTC, but electrified convection seems unlikely and hence no lightning or risk areas are issued.