Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Feb 2015 06:00 to Tue 10 Feb 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Feb 2015 03:13
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 is issued for the parts of the Mediterranean and Aegean Sea around Greece mainly for chances of tornadoes and marginally large hail.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A solid blocking high pressure system over the British Isles and western Europeean mainland diverts the western flow to northern Europe while a deep upper trough translates eastwards through the central/eastern Mediterranean basin. A first trough with enhanced thunderstorm activity passes Cyprus on its way to Syria. The second trough activates a surface cold front belonging to an intensifying low pressure center over the Ionean Sea, shifting to the Aegean Sea. Strong low-level convergence zones focus upward motion, triggering convection in an environment with a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE while vorticity can be stretched into updrafts and form waterspouts (i.e. tornadoes). Veering of winds with height in the lowest kilometers is indicated by high SREH values coming in from the west, but mainly behind the cold front where the airmass is stable. However, overlap of favorable ingredients for tornadogenesis may occur along the front and its occlusion which moves close to the Greek coast into the Aegean later at night. Additionally, some storms may have well enough organized updrafts to produce marginally large hail.