Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Jan 2015 06:00 to Tue 27 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 26 Jan 2015 03:41
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for the Tunesia-Sardinia area mainly for chances for spout-type tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for the Ionean Sea area mainly for chances for tornadoes and large hail and excessive convective precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for the Aegean Sea area mainly for chances for large hail.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large cut-off low remains spinning in the central Mediterranean region with surface cores between Sardinia and Tunesia and near southern Italy. In these regions intense 10m convergence bands should focus convection, which may slowly train and cause significant precipitation sums. The high surface vorticity helps formation of waterspout-type tornadoes. However, near southern Italy, GFS-18Z depicts 200-300 m²/s² of 0-3 km storm-relative helicity, and 7-12 m/s 0-1 km shear, which can lead to mesocyclonic storms and aid tornadogenesis, although upper level winds are pretty weak. More upper and mid level shear is present at the eastern boundary of the upper trough, over Greece and Turkey. There, storms may form over the Aegean with 10-20 m/s deep layer shear, which may enhance updrafts enough to produce large hail. On the other hand, buoyancy is lacking with just a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE.