Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 19 Jan 2015 06:00 to Tue 20 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 Jan 2015 04:36
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for the area between Tunesia and Sicily mainly for large hail.
SYNOPSIS
Between a Scandinavia-eastern Europe surface high pressure and a north-south elongated Atlantic ridge a large scale upper trough with several surface low pressure centers dominates over Europe. One main low lies over the North Sea, filled with cold unstable air producing thundery showers, the other has entered the western Mediterranean region via the Strait of Gibraltar. An upper shortwave trough is moving out of the Adriatic/Ionean Sea in the early morning, but is replaced by a new trough in the latest hours of the forecast.
DISCUSSION
...Tunesia-Sicily region...
With steep lapse rates advected out of the Sahara over the Mediterranean waters ahead of a new PV maximum, several hundred J/kg CAPE could form and produce storms which may contain supercells, given the 15-20 m/s deep layer shear and over 200 mē/sē SREH resulting from veering winds with height as result of warm air advection. With low level shear lacking, the primary threat should be large hail.
