Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 14 Dec 2014 06:00 to Mon 15 Dec 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 14 Dec 2014 08:18
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southwestern Spain and northwestern Morocco mainy for excessive precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for the Norwegian Sea mainy for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A deep low ( hPa) is situated between Iceland and Norway. Within the cold unstable airmass over the Norwegian Sea, significant pressure gradients are present leading to wind speeds of 25-30 m/s which could be transferred to ground as severe wind gusts in downdrafts within deep convection. The convection itself is unlikely to be very organized, although some banding could be observed. The highest winds >30 m/s appear to develop after midnight when an occlusion wraps around the low, with a reduction of convection, but it resembles a possible stingjet scenario.
A cut-off low is dwelling around southwestern Iberian Peninsula. An unstable airmass with several hundred J/kg weakly capped CAPE comes ashore in Morocco and southwestern Spain where coastal convergence should trigger abundant storms. This may lead to several tens of millimeters of rain locally. Low pressure also shifts into the western Mediterranean with slight CAPE patches forming toward the end of the night.