Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 26 Nov 2014 06:00 to Thu 27 Nov 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 25 Nov 2014 18:19
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Morocco and SW Iberia mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Situation will be dominated by a de-amplifying ridge over central and parts of western Europe. To the east, a trough filled with colder airmass will stretch towards Turkey. To the west, a short-wave trough is forecast to approach SW Iberia.

With dry and stable airmass over much of the continetal Europe, DMC activity will be limited only to the areas with marginal instability over E Atlantic and W to central Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

... Morocco towards SW Iberia ...

With the approaching short-wave trough, steepening pressure gradient will result in enhancement of southerly low-level flow, increasing 850 hPa windspeeds up to 20 m/s. Due to the absence of steep mid-level lapse rates, degree of latent instability should be only marginal, with CAPE values reaching on the order of hundreds J/kg. Cold front, along with the PVA ahead of the approaching trough will provide enough lift for destabilisation and initiation of DMC. With southerly prevailing flow parallel to the front, it is likely that an MCS in form of parallel stratiform region will form with new cells regenerating at the southern part of the system. Especially close to the coastline areas, cell training may result in excessive precipitation events. Thus, Lvl 1 is warranted for the region.