Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 23 Nov 2014 06:00 to Mon 24 Nov 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 23 Nov 2014 04:03
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure area and upper cutoff low is lingering southwest of Portugal. In a zone from central Spain to western Morocco and Canary Islands a few hundred J/kg CAPE are available. Thunderstorms will be activated by low-level convergence lines and later also by the PV or mid level vorticity advection moving into Morocco. At most, waterspouts and locally moderate rain sums may be expected due to slow cell movement.
The low is locked between two ridges of high pressure over the Atlantic and the western Mediterranean Sea. Warm air flows northward into France, meeting cooler air arriving from the Atlantic at a cold front stretching from northwestern Spain to western Norway. This front will pass over Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark while warm air stays in place over France. Slight elevated instability develops along a line between southern France, Sardinia and Tunesia. There seems to be not much available in terms of lifting. Off the east side of the map, a low associated with a cutoff PV blob triggers convective storms around Cyprus, but CAPE values seem to be quite weak and convective tops relatively low.