Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 31 Oct 2014 06:00 to Sat 01 Nov 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 30 Oct 2014 11:19
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for SW Portugal mainly for an isolated large hail risk.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Ridge over Spain/France intensifies and builds east downstream of a deep Iceland cyclone. Warming mid-levels indicate weakening stage of an upper low over SE Europe. Scattered thunderstorms occur over Greece and over offshore areas. Slow storm motion may result in heavy rain but overall severe risk remains low. A few waterspouts are possible along the coasts.

EML spreads north from N-Morocco and over a plume of moist marine air. The result is 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear of 15 m/s in the lowest 3/6 km may support a few better organized storms with an isolated large hail risk during the evening and overnight hours. In addition a localized waterspout risk exists along the coast. The risk for isolated elevated storms extends to far SW-UK.

Elsewhere, no (organized) thunderstorm risk exists.