Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 23 Oct 2014 06:00 to Fri 24 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Oct 2014 22:29
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the Aegean Sea region and western and southern Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts, and to a lesser extend tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for north-western Turkey mainly for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

An intense cut-off low has formed across the central Mediterranean that starts weaken on Thursday. Cold and dry air masses continue to spread into the Mediterranean behind a cold front that reaches the Aegean and Turkey. Ridging affects central Europe.

DISCUSSION

Aegean and Turkey region

With a southerly flow, rich low-level moisture is advected into the Aegean Sea region on Thursday morning. Although lapse rates are not too steep, at least some low-level CAPE is quite likely in the range of a strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front. While the cold front outruns the cut-off low, it will become orientated more parallel to the flow so that a parallel stratiform MCS may develop. This is expected to produce excessive precipitation along the Turkish coasts where upslope flow will assist intense convection. Due to the strong winds in the low-level jet, downdrafts may also be accompanied by severe winds.

Tornadoes are also not excluded as strong low-level vertical wind shear overlaps with the instability along the Turkish coast.

Further west, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread over The Adriatic into Greece near the base of the cut-off low. Vertical wind shear is weak and storm organization is expected to be low. Gusty winds are likely due to the large pressure gradient, though.