Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 09 Jul 2014 13:00 to Wed 09 Jul 2014 17:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 09 Jul 2014 13:19
Forecaster: PUCIK

... Northern Germany ...

Satellite and radar loops show thunderstorm developing in bands across the area, aligned mostly parallel to the prevailing easterly flow. Surface observations reveal pronounced convergence zone with low T-Td spreads and dew point values between 17 and 20 °C. Bergen 12 UTC sounding looks particularly menacing with respect to the excessive rainfall - with SBCAPE value around 2000 J/kg, PW over 40 mm, high RH in the whole troposphere. These conditions, combined with the fact that mean tropospheric flow (around 15 m/s) is parallel to the convergence zone, point to a very high threat of cell training and subsequent excessive rainfall events.

Moreover, with LLS above 10 m/s and low LCLs, if storms can develop rotation, perhaps aided if they move over the convergence zone with enhanced vorticity, tornadoes can not be ruled out.