Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 04 Jun 2014 14:00 to Wed 04 Jun 2014 17:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 04 Jun 2014 13:51
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

Thunderstorms are currently initiating along a sea breeze front over NW Turkey. Beneath strong Southwesterly flow aloft, excellent wind profiles for storm organization can be achieved with 0-6 km shear between 20 and 25 m/s and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in excess of 300 m^2/s^2. Surface temperatures around 25C and dewpoints between 17 and 20C make (slightly capped) CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg realistic.
Storms are expected to quickly organize into supercells with a risk of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. In coastal areas, low cloud bases and enhanced low-level shear in the sea breeze regime hint at an enhanced risk of a tornado.

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