Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 18 Apr 2014 06:00 to Sat 19 Apr 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 17 Apr 2014 20:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Two cold-core lows over CNTRL/SE Europe bring unsettled conditions with daytime driven convection. Stronger storms produce graupel and strong wind gusts. The activity diminishes after sunset. Thunderstorms however continue over the Aegean Sea during the night with an isolated waterspout risk. Heavy rain occurs over W-Bulgaria, Macedonia and SE Serbia, but despite isolated embedded short-lived thunderstorms, this will be a stratiform rainfall event. The same for CNTRL Romania.

Portugal and W-Spain remain along the fringe of a ridge. A mid-layer trough affects those regions and attendant weak lift, a W-E aligned convergence zone and diabatic heating should assist in the development of scattered thunderstorms. Shear will be less than 10 m/s, but with MLCAPE of 800 J/kg and therefore stronger updrafts, an isolated large hail or severe downburst event (LCLs between 1.5 and 2 km with a dry subcloud layer) remain possible. Clustering storms also pose an heavy rainfall risk. The coverage of storms diminishes during the night although an isolated event remains possible until 06Z.