Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 02 Apr 2014 06:00 to Thu 03 Apr 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 01 Apr 2014 20:38
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Compared to the previous days, synoptic-scale situation will remain quite similar throughout Europe. At mid to upper troposphere, a trough will reside over the Eastern Atlantic, with its base translating towards the Balearic Sea. On its forward flank, quite strong mid-level flow is observed. Towards the east, a ridge will stretch from the Central Mediterranean towards BENELUX and the Northern Sea. A deep trough filled with very cold airmass will persist over Russia.

Several areas may experience some DMC activity during the day:

1/ Western Iberia - behind the cold front, in moist and unstable airmass thanks to the cold mid-levels. CAPE values may locally reach 1000 J/kg with DLS values reaching 10 - 15 m/s (higher DLS will be displaced more to the east, ahead of the cold front). Scattered thunderstorms are forecast over the area, severe threat limited by lack of concentrated forcing and lack of strong vertical wind shear. Nevertheless, stronger multicells may be capable of marginally large hail.

2/ Parts of France, UK and Denmark
Close to the ridge axis, in WAA regime, a plume of steep-mid level lapse rates (Elevated Mixed Layer) will be advected from Northern Africa towards Southern UK and NW Germany. However, meager low-level moisture (surface observations revealing dew points mostly below 10 °C). Both ECMWF and GFS simulate rather insignificant short-wave trough pasing from Northern Sea towards Denmark and further southeastwards during the day, so here, initiation seems to be least questionable. Otherwise, high CIN values and lack of strong forcing might prevent more widespread DMC.

3/ Austria towards Balkans
In the northwesterly flow aloft, under cool mid-levels, modest mid-level lapse rates might support some marginal instability build-up. Local circulations induced by terrain might aid in the initiation - isolated thunderstorms are forecast. Weak instability and lack of strong wind shear will preclude more pronounced severe weather threat.