Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 20 Mar 2014 06:00 to Fri 21 Mar 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 20 Mar 2014 05:09
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A ridge will affect most of Europe today, and forcing for ascend will be weak. Additionally, rather warm mid-level air masses and the dry boundary-layer will result in almost no CAPE. Across south-western Europe, a weak mid-level trough will remain. Steep lapse rates are expected to build in response to diurnal heating of the cold air. Low-level moisture is limited, but weak CAPE is indicated by both GFS and ECMWF across the central Iberian Peninsula and over northern Africa. Current thinking is that some spots with better moisture are present due to outflow-boundaries of yesterdays convection. Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon hours. Given the weak CAPE, shear, and forcing, only weak storms are forecast that will gradually decay after sunset. Marginally severe hail is not ruled out due to the low wet bulb freezing level.

Across north-western Europe, a strong mid-level jet streak will spread south-eastward. Strong DCVA is forecast to overspread the area today. However, low-level cold air advection is expected to be dominating and forcing for low-level lift is expected to be weak. A few isolated storms are not ruled out across Ireland and over western Norway.