Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 19 Mar 2014 06:00 to Thu 20 Mar 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 18 Mar 2014 22:56
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Satellite loops reveal a sharp short-wave trough with its axis situated over BENELUX as of 22 UTC Tuesday. This short-wave will quickly translate towards southeast, its axis located over Slovakia and Hungary by 12 UTC Wednesday and on the fringes of the western Black Sea by 00 UTC Thursday. However, it should be gradually filling in during its course. Behind the short-wave, a ridge will build over Western Europe. To the north of the ridge, strong westerlies will be observed.

Closer to the surface, a cold front will sweep across much of Central Europe heading towards southeast during the day, reaching Balkans and the Black Sea by the Wednesday night.

Two areas might experience some DMC during the forecast period:
A/ Central to Southeastern Europe
Surface observations reveal only marginal low level moisture. As the trough continues southeastward, upward motion along the cooler mid-level temperatures should contribute to steeper mid-level lapse rates. Marginal CAPE might form, with values generally below 200 J/kg. Scattered low-topped showers will form, few of them might produce some isolated lightnings strikes but their severe potential should remain very low despite the fact that wind shear will be quite strong. Still, isolated wind gusts around 20 m/s might accompany these low-topped storms due to the quite strong background flow. GFS and ECMWF differ considerably in the location of enhanced CAPE values and thus rather broad areas are introduced.

B/ Southwestern Iberia, Algeria
Both areas will remain under very quiescent synoptic setup with weak geopotential gradients and under somewhat cooler mid-level airmass. Enhanced mid-level lapse rates will contribute to low-end CAPE values and some diurnally driven thunderstorms, linked to the topographic circulations, should form. Very weak vertical shear should preclude any severe risk, perhaps apart from some small hail.