Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 16 Mar 2014 06:00 to Mon 17 Mar 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 16 Mar 2014 03:44
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels are issued.

SYNOPSIS

Between a mid level high pressure center over the Bay of Biscay and a low over northern Russia, a large pressure gradient exists all the way from Iceland to the Black Sea and a strong jetstream developed (70 m/s at 300 hPa from Sweden into Ukraine)

Scandinavia and eastern Europe are inside the cool airmass, which is slightly unstable from Poland and Baltic states into Ukraine. Due to a lack of low level moisture, only sporadic thunderstorms can occur, mainly over Belarus and parts of Ukraine, where EL temperatures reach below -30°C. Over Poland a warm front comes in from the west, diminishing the convective cloud depth in the cold air mass to only a few kilometers. For that reason the chance of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is reduced, even though shear parameters look very strong.

The area between Crete and Turkey hosts a small low pressure area building up CAPE but seems to remain mostly capped except for the southern Aegean Sea. During the night the area just south of Turkey shows good enough SREH for supercells, due to backed low level flow, but this is one of the problematic capped regions. If storms form there they may produce large hail, a tornado is not ruled out in that case either.