Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Feb 2014 06:00 to Thu 06 Feb 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 04 Feb 2014 20:58
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for SW England / Wales and W France mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Satellite loops from Tuesday reveal explosive cyclogenesis between 00 and 12 UTC over the Atlantic with the center of the low as of 20 UTC mostly detached from the main baroclinic zone and its center revealing warm secclusion from the perspective of 850 hPa temperature. Behind the occluded front, banded DMC produce isolated lightning strikes over the ocean. This airmass will advect behind the front over some areas of western Europe, with only marginal CAPE values due to the lack of abundant low level moisture and only modest mid-level lapse rates.

Strong low-level flow around 850 hPa will contribute to enhanced LLS values, which should easily exceed 10 m/s. DLS should be marginal at best, perhaps apart from Southern France, where lifting jet-stream from south towards north will increase its values. Here, also the best forcing and enhanced SREH will be observed at the time of the instability build-up - around 12 UTC. Thus, we consider the region of Southern France as having the highest potential of low-topped supercells capable of isolated tornadoes / severe wind gusts. However, we can not rule out this scenario also to the north - up to SW England / Wales. Thus, relatively large Lvl 1 is introduced.