Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Dec 2013 06:00 to Wed 18 Dec 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Dec 2013 15:57
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Beside some flattening of the major upper ridge over most of S/C Europe, no change in the weather pattern is anticipated. In addition, a major warm-up (roughly 10K/24h at 500 hPa) is expected over N-Europe. Weak mid/upper cyclonic vortices over the W/E Mediterranean spark numerous showers, but meager BL moisture and weak mid-level lapse rates keep thunderstorm probabilities very low. Despite missing lightning activity, repeatedly developing and slow moving showers over the W-Aegean Sea may bring heavy rain to parts of E-Greece. Enhanced LL CAPE could support a few spout events although background flow from the north remains rather strong.

The only area with isolated lightning activity is expected along the W (coastal)-part of Norway. Strong gusts and sleet will be the main hazard.