Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 20 Nov 2013 06:00 to Thu 21 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 20 Nov 2013 08:06
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for western coastline of Greece, Albania and Western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for marginally large hail and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Satellite imagery reveals several disturbances embedded in the large pool of low geopotentials over Western and Central Europe. Two most distinct ones are as of 06 UTC centered over northern Scottland quickly moving to the south and over southern France that will translate towards southeast across the Western Mediterranean. Several other short-wave troughs are observed especially at the southern flank of the pool in the westerly to southwesterly flow over the Mediterranean. A frontal zone will run from the Central Mediterranean towards Hungary and Eastern Poland. In contrast to the previous days, convective activity will be less significant albeit western coastline of southern Balkans and Turkey deserve some closer inspection.

DISCUSSION

... Western coastline of Greece and Albania and of Turkey ...

Persistent low-level convergence near the coastline with some perpendicular component of the flow towards it suggest that several rounds of DMC are quite likely in this areas. Marginal to moderate values of CAPE are expected along with 10 to 15 m/s of 850 hPa flow, weakening towards the late afternoon. While lack of strong low level jet, pronounced forcing and also of abundant moisture will likely somewhat limit the excessive precipitation threat, Lvl 1 seems to be warranted due to the possibility of a training pattern development in these areas. Otherwise, marginally large hail might accompany stronger cells or some waterspout activity along the coastal convergence zones. Isolated tornado is not ruled out in case of Western Turkey, especially the northern part, where enhanced low level shear is simulated inland.