Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 02 Nov 2013 06:00 to Sun 03 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 01 Nov 2013 22:23
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 was issued for Ireland and Wales for severe convective wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A broad zonal flow covers most parts of Europe, distorted by a progressive, deepening trough and another powerful cyclone which cross the British Isles during the forecast period. Minimal and rather shallow CAPE is forecast in the belt of augmented low-level moisture along its cold front over Northern Portugal, Northern Spain and France, and then again in its wake over the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay, where lapse rates steepen in response to QG lift. Shower activity in these areas may be accompanied by a few lightning strikes. 0-3 km vertical wind shear does not exceed 15 m/s, but the strong background wind field can promote some severe wind gusts even with weakly organized convection over Ireland and Wales (25-30 m/s flow at 850 hPa).
Further downstream, a forerunning frontal wave crosses BeNeLux and Northern Germany but gets dampened by a lack of forcing. Leftover patches of (elevated) CAPE near its crest might allow isolated thunderstorms in the 06 to 12 UTC time frame. However, their northward displacement from the stronger kinematics of the warm sector should preclude any severe weather.

Scattered to widespread showers will form in the cool maritime air mass off the Norwegian coast, which is characterized by deep mixing and very weak vertical wind shear. They will barely grow deep enough to produce any lightning.

To the South, quiescent conditions prevail over the Mediterranean Sea, but scattered showers are still possible in the range of a decaying upper-level low around Italy. An isolated waterspout is not ruled out, especially along land breeze fronts in the morning hours.