Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 30 Oct 2013 06:00 to Thu 31 Oct 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 Oct 2013 07:52
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for the coastline of NE Algeria and NW Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A sharp short-wave trough continues on its way across Central and Northern Europe towards the east. Its southern flank, reaching almost quasistationary mode over the Western Mediterranean will be cut off from the main western flow. With the trough slowly filling in, associated mid to upper tropospheric flow will weaken as well, limiting the degree of the vertical wind shear. Nevertheless, 00 UTC soundings from the area reveal rather steep mid-level lapse rates atop somewhat cool and moist boundary layer, capped from the mid-level airmass. Low to moderate degree of latent instability is forecast, with the highest values in the belt on the forward flank of the trough - from NE Algeria towards Sardegna / Corsica and NW Italy. A level 1 was introduced for the coastline of NW Italy and NE Algeria, where moist boundary layer along with the persistent onshore flow might lead to the repetitive development of DMC. Attendant risk of excessive precipitation will exist over these regions.