Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 20 Sep 2013 06:00 to Sat 21 Sep 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 19 Sep 2013 14:00
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Crete and surrounding areas mainly for an isolated large hail and excessive rainfall event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An extensive upper low with numerous embedded vortices is placed over NE Europe. This feature won't have any appreciable access to moisture with a low chance for DMC (displaced to the east of our forecast area). High pressure builds in from the west over W/C-Europe and precludes any DMC probabilities.

The only area with DMC probabilities extends from N-Tunisia to Crete, where 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS overlap. Any severe risk probably peaks over Crete with stronger shear and CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Weak mid-level impulses cross that island between 12-18 Z and support isolated CI. Large hail, an isolated severe downburst event and locally excessive rain will be the main hazard.