Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 04 Sep 2013 06:00 to Thu 05 Sep 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 04 Sep 2013 08:39
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Tunisia and adjacent seas mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

With an extensive ridge covering most of Western Europe, subsequently stretching all the way towards Sweden and a deep trough over Eastern Europe, synoptic situation will be generally unfavourable for the generation of DMC. The main culprit is a rather dry, northerly flow with rather stable mid-level lapse rates. Besides several areas with low probability of lightning occurrence, the only region worth more discussion will be Tunisia and the adjancent seas.

Here, cut-off cyclonic vortex induces westerly mid and upper tropospheric flow advecing steep mid-level lapse rates while at low-levels, easterly flow with very high moisture content prevails. Such setup creates a very potent situation with high values of latent instability especially to the south of our forecast area along with moderate to strong degree of vertical wind shear. While the best conditions will exist to the south of our area, a Level 1 for excessive precipitation and/or large hail seems warranted also for northern part of Tunisia.