Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 20 Apr 2013 06:00 to Sun 21 Apr 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 19 Apr 2013 16:10
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

After a cut-off process over Southern France, the frontal zone retreats to Northern Europe. The remaining trough and its associated old frontal system move eastward from the Baltic Sea into Western Russia, and another one will approach the British Isles towards the end of the forecast period.
Meanwhile, a large high pressure system builds over Western and Central Europe and stabilizes the settled cool air. Eastern Europe and much of the Mediterranean region also see rather calm and temperate conditions with no distinctive features on the forecast maps.
The only exception is a cyclone over the Ligurian Sea which has rapidly formed in response to the upper-level cut-off process overnight, but already starts to fill up again. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon to night hours along its eastward moving cold front over Northeastern Algeria and Central Italy, supported by positive vorticity advection aloft, and in the vicinity of the low's center next to Cote d'Azur. Severe weather is not expected due to weak vertical wind shear and very limited instability.
Otherwise, the day will be very quiet convection-wise across entire Europe. Ongoing heavy stratiform precipitation in Northwestern Italy and Southern Switzerland due to moist upslope flow in the periphery of the Ligurian cyclone qualifies for a side note, though this threat is not included into the ESTOFEX scheme.