Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 27 Feb 2013 06:00 to Thu 28 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 26 Feb 2013 21:23
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A peculiar weather pattern is forecast over Europe with a "high over low" configuration as low geopotentials dominate the weather pattern over the Mediterranean while higher geopotentials cover regions to the north. This setup is caused by a broad and pronounced high pressure system centered over the British Isles, its ridge stretching towards Central Europe. Stronger mid and upper tropospheric flow is confined only to the northern fringe of the high and southern fringe of the low geopotentials. Most of Europe will be under a dry, easterly to northeasterly flow with conditions generally too hostile for DMC.

The only exception should be the Mediterranean region, where very cold mid-level temperatures induce steep lapse rates. However, generally moisture-starved environment should preclude any significant latent instability development and CAPE values should stay mostly well below 500 J/kg. Two regions that should experience the highest DMC coverage will be:

A/ Portugal
As the mid-tropospheric low slowly advances towards the south, strong PVA is simulated at its forward flank, which should contribute to the forcing and release of the instability.

B/ Turkey coastline
Situated in the left-exit region of the mid-level jet-streak and at the forward flank of the short-wave trough, forcing should compensate for the meager instability. Southern half of the coastline will be actually under quite strong DLS (over 20 m/s), but 850 - 700 hPa flow should be quite weak. Given that stronger flow should start well above 600 hPa, it is highly questionable that DLS will be "effective" for the expected low-topped convection. Despite some low-end severe weather threat of marginally large hail and/or severe wind gusts, Level 1 is not warranted attm.