Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 16 Feb 2013 06:00 to Sun 17 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Feb 2013 15:31
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS

While a weak ridge extends into Western Europe, the whole remainder of the continent is still influenced by a broad upper-level trough. Dry, cold air and anticyclonic influence near the surface create hostile conditions for deep convection.

DISCUSSION

...Ionian Sea...

A shallow and weak surface low slowly travels eastward from Southern Italy into the Ionian Sea. Forecast models show weak CAPE (100-200 J/kg) in its range.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and behind the cold front, especially over the Northern part of the Ionian Sea which gets grazed by some vorticity lobes throughout the forecast period. Vertical wind shear is too weak to expect any severe weather, though.
Further South, deep-layer shear would increase to 20 m/s beneath the subtropical branch of the jetstream, but a possible cap in the warm sector and the lack of dynamic lift support make convective initiation increasingly unlikely.