Valid: Thu 14 Feb 2013 06:00 to Fri 15 Feb 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 14 Feb 2013 05:58
SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION
Broad low geopotential covers Europe through-out the period. It's center is situated across the central Mediterranean and will move eastward today. At the same time, another vort-max will enter the trough from the north-west. The air mass across Europe is rather dry over most places and lapse rates are relatively stable. Better low-level moisture is present across the central and east Mediterranean as well as across western Europe. Whereas lapse rates are poor across western Europe, an overlap of steep lapse rates and rather high moisture is indicated by latest soundings from the Mediterranean. Latest observations also indicate that thunderstorms have formed across the central Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. Today, thunderstorm activity is expected to spread eastward with the main trough center. Best forcing is forecast ahead of the trough across the southern Aegean and Turkey, where widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and evening hours. Upslope flow and rather moist low-level air will support a slight chance of excessive rain. Severe potential is rather limited, though, as vertical wind shear will be weak. A few waterspouts are not ruled out with the Mediterranean convection. Across the west Mediterranean, advection of low-level dry air and decreasing lapse rates will lead to weakening convection.